Business Renewals

2019 Oil Price Review

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As the New Year was brought in with a bang it is worth checking on how wholesale oil prices moved inline with some of the market expert forecasts.  We have complied a list of some of the large fund managers and industry experts to see how their predictions matched up with market reality.

For reference there are two main indices for Oil, these being the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) which comes from the United States and is the benchmark for U.S. oil prices.  Brent Crude Oil Futures comes from Northwest Europe and is the benchmark for global oil prices.  For the purposes of this we have used Brent.

1st January Brent Crude Oil Futures – $59 / barrel

  • World Bank – Predicted an average cost per barrel in 2019 of $67
  • Citi Bank – Predicted an average cost per barrel in 2019 of $60
  • Bank of America – Predicted an average cost per barrel in 2019 of $70
  • EIA – Predicted an average cost per barrel in 2019 of $61
  • RBC Capital Markets – Predicted oil prices could top $80
  • Iran – Predicted oil prices could top $100
  • Eurasia Group – Predicted oil prices over $100 and possibly $150 if tensions with Iran increased significantly

So what was the actual average for 2019….

$64.09

 

Conclusions

Both the World Bank and the EIA came closest when predicting the average Brent price but as prices started the year at $59 and many world economies slowing or in recession there was little chance of any major changes within the wholesale markets.  However it is clear that many analysts from reputable companies were very far away from reality.

So what will 2020 bring…

We will be bringing you a wide range of predictions of what this year will hold in a future post coming soon.

 

 

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